Predicted scoreToss-up
UTSA
26.0
Tulane
28.1
Tulane win probability: 55%
Margin (Tulane − UTSA): 2.2 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 54.1 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UTSA 16 – Tulane 29 (margin error 10.8, total error 9.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.