2023 Week 12 · Nov 19, 2023, 3:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

New Mexico @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreConfident

New Mexico

18.3

Fresno State

39.5

Fresno State win probability: 90%

Margin (Fresno State − New Mexico): 21.2 (80% range 0 to 42)

Total: 57.8 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: New Mexico 25 – Fresno State 17 (margin error 29.2, total error 15.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.