2023 Week 12 · Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 AM · Jack Trice Stadium
Texas @ Iowa State
Predicted scoreLean
Texas
29.6
Iowa State
22.4
Iowa State win probability: 32%
Margin (Iowa State − Texas): -7.3 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 52.0 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Texas 26 – Iowa State 16 (margin error 2.7, total error 10.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.