2023 Week 12 · Nov 19, 2023, 12:30 AM · Razorback Stadium

Florida International @ Arkansas

Predicted scoreConfident

Florida International

11.5

Arkansas

36.1

Arkansas win probability: 95%

Margin (Arkansas − Florida International): 24.5 (80% range 5 to 45)

Total: 47.6 (80% range 27 to 70)

Actual: Florida International 20 – Arkansas 44 (margin error 0.5, total error 16.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.