2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 10:00 PM · Jones AT&T Stadium
UCF @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreLean
UCF
27.4
Texas Tech
32.3
Texas Tech win probability: 62%
Margin (Texas Tech − UCF): 4.9 (80% range -16 to 26)
Total: 59.7 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: UCF 23 – Texas Tech 24 (margin error 3.9, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.