2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 9:00 PM · Mountain America Stadium

Oregon @ Arizona State

Predicted scoreConfident

Oregon

39.4

Arizona State

19.6

Arizona State win probability: 11%

Margin (Arizona State − Oregon): -19.8 (80% range -41 to 0)

Total: 58.9 (80% range 35 to 84)

Actual: Oregon 49 – Arizona State 13 (margin error 16.2, total error 3.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.