Predicted scoreToss-up
Illinois
19.6
Iowa
22.0
Iowa win probability: 56%
Margin (Iowa − Illinois): 2.3 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 41.6 (80% range 21 to 62)
Actual: Illinois 13 – Iowa 15 (margin error 0.3, total error 13.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 17 | 0.98% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.