2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 8:30 PM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

UCLA @ USC

Predicted scoreLean

UCLA

26.2

USC

33.3

USC win probability: 66%

Margin (USC − UCLA): 7.1 (80% range -14 to 28)

Total: 59.5 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: UCLA 38 – USC 20 (margin error 25.1, total error 1.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.