2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 8:00 PM · Centennial Bank Stadium

Texas State @ Arkansas State

Predicted scoreLean

Texas State

31.9

Arkansas State

27.1

Arkansas State win probability: 39%

Margin (Arkansas State − Texas State): -4.8 (80% range -26 to 17)

Total: 59.0 (80% range 34 to 85)

Actual: Texas State 31 – Arkansas State 77 (margin error 50.8, total error 49.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.