2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

SMU @ Memphis

Predicted scoreToss-up

SMU

29.4

Memphis

28.7

Memphis win probability: 49%

Margin (Memphis − SMU): -0.7 (80% range -21 to 21)

Total: 58.1 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: SMU 38 – Memphis 34 (margin error 3.3, total error 13.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.