2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 5:00 PM · Davis Wade Stadium

Southern Miss @ Mississippi State

Predicted scoreLikely

Southern Miss

19.1

Mississippi State

29.9

Mississippi State win probability: 76%

Margin (Mississippi State − Southern Miss): 10.8 (80% range -9 to 31)

Total: 49.0 (80% range 27 to 72)

Actual: Southern Miss 20 – Mississippi State 41 (margin error 10.2, total error 12.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.