2023 Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023, 2:00 AM · Alamodome
South Florida @ UTSA
Predicted scoreLikely
South Florida
23.7
UTSA
33.1
UTSA win probability: 72%
Margin (UTSA − South Florida): 9.4 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 83)
Actual: South Florida 21 – UTSA 49 (margin error 18.6, total error 13.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.