2023 Week 11 · Nov 12, 2023, 3:30 AM · CEFCU Stadium
Fresno State @ San José State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Fresno State
30.8
San José State
27.4
San José State win probability: 42%
Margin (San José State − Fresno State): -3.4 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 58.2 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Fresno State 18 – San José State 42 (margin error 27.4, total error 1.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.