2023 Week 11 · Nov 12, 2023, 3:15 AM · LaVell Edwards Stadium

Iowa State @ BYU

Predicted scoreToss-up

Iowa State

24.9

BYU

22.1

BYU win probability: 43%

Margin (BYU − Iowa State): -2.8 (80% range -23 to 17)

Total: 47.0 (80% range 26 to 70)

Actual: Iowa State 45 – BYU 13 (margin error 29.2, total error 11.0)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.