2023 Week 11 · Nov 12, 2023, 12:00 AM · Canvas Stadium
San Diego State @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreToss-up
San Diego State
24.3
Colorado State
23.5
Colorado State win probability: 48%
Margin (Colorado State − San Diego State): -0.9 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 47.8 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: San Diego State 19 – Colorado State 22 (margin error 3.9, total error 6.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.