2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:30 PM · Doak Campbell Stadium

Miami @ Florida State

Predicted scoreLikely

Miami

21.6

Florida State

36.9

Florida State win probability: 82%

Margin (Florida State − Miami): 15.3 (80% range -6 to 36)

Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)

Actual: Miami 20 – Florida State 27 (margin error 8.3, total error 11.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.