2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:30 PM · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

UAB @ Navy

Predicted scoreToss-up

UAB

26.4

Navy

23.9

Navy win probability: 43%

Margin (Navy − UAB): -2.6 (80% range -22 to 17)

Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: UAB 6 – Navy 31 (margin error 27.6, total error 13.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.