2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:30 PM · Brooks Stadium (SC)

Texas State @ Coastal Carolina

Predicted scoreLean

Texas State

24.1

Coastal Carolina

28.7

Coastal Carolina win probability: 61%

Margin (Coastal Carolina − Texas State): 4.6 (80% range -15 to 25)

Total: 52.8 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Texas State 23 – Coastal Carolina 31 (margin error 3.4, total error 1.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.