2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:30 PM · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Florida International @ Middle Tennessee

Predicted scoreLikely

Florida International

19.3

Middle Tennessee

31.9

Middle Tennessee win probability: 79%

Margin (Middle Tennessee − Florida International): 12.6 (80% range -7 to 32)

Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)

Actual: Florida International 6 – Middle Tennessee 40 (margin error 21.4, total error 5.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.