2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:30 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium

Oklahoma State @ UCF

Predicted scoreToss-up

Oklahoma State

32.5

UCF

29.6

UCF win probability: 43%

Margin (UCF − Oklahoma State): -2.9 (80% range -24 to 18)

Total: 62.1 (80% range 37 to 89)

Actual: Oklahoma State 3 – UCF 45 (margin error 44.9, total error 14.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.