2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 8:00 PM · Maverik Stadium
Nevada @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLean
Nevada
24.6
Utah State
29.4
Utah State win probability: 62%
Margin (Utah State − Nevada): 4.8 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Nevada 24 – Utah State 41 (margin error 12.2, total error 11.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.