2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 7:00 PM · Center Parc Stadium

App State @ Georgia State

Predicted scoreToss-up

App State

27.6

Georgia State

31.9

Georgia State win probability: 60%

Margin (Georgia State − App State): 4.4 (80% range -17 to 25)

Total: 59.5 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: App State 42 – Georgia State 14 (margin error 32.4, total error 3.5)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.