2023 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023, 2:00 AM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium

North Texas @ SMU

Predicted scoreLikely

North Texas

25.2

SMU

36.2

SMU win probability: 74%

Margin (SMU − North Texas): 11.0 (80% range -10 to 32)

Total: 61.3 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: North Texas 21 – SMU 45 (margin error 13.0, total error 4.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.