2023 Week 10 · Nov 5, 2023, 2:00 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

Boise State @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLean

Boise State

26.0

Fresno State

30.8

Fresno State win probability: 61%

Margin (Fresno State − Boise State): 4.8 (80% range -16 to 25)

Total: 56.8 (80% range 33 to 82)

Actual: Boise State 30 – Fresno State 37 (margin error 2.2, total error 10.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.