Predicted scoreConfident
Purdue
14.0
Michigan
40.1
Michigan win probability: 95%
Margin (Michigan − Purdue): 26.1 (80% range 6 to 47)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Purdue 13 – Michigan 41 (margin error 1.9, total error 0.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 45 | 0.80% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 35 | 0.77% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.