2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 11:30 PM · Davis Wade Stadium

Kentucky @ Mississippi State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Kentucky

27.0

Mississippi State

25.1

Mississippi State win probability: 45%

Margin (Mississippi State − Kentucky): -1.9 (80% range -21 to 18)

Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Kentucky 24 – Mississippi State 3 (margin error 19.1, total error 25.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.