2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 10:00 PM · Aggie Memorial Stadium

Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Middle Tennessee

29.4

New Mexico State

28.2

New Mexico State win probability: 47%

Margin (New Mexico State − Middle Tennessee): -1.2 (80% range -22 to 20)

Total: 57.6 (80% range 34 to 83)

Actual: Middle Tennessee 7 – New Mexico State 13 (margin error 7.2, total error 37.6)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.