2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 9:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Georgia Southern @ Texas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

Georgia Southern

25.1

Texas State

26.8

Texas State win probability: 54%

Margin (Texas State − Georgia Southern): 1.7 (80% range -18 to 21)

Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)

Actual: Georgia Southern 24 – Texas State 45 (margin error 19.3, total error 17.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.