2023 Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023, 7:30 PM · Nippert Stadium
UCF @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreToss-up
UCF
30.3
Cincinnati
30.0
Cincinnati win probability: 49%
Margin (Cincinnati − UCF): -0.3 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 60.3 (80% range 35 to 87)
Actual: UCF 28 – Cincinnati 26 (margin error 1.7, total error 6.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.