2023 Week 9 · Oct 29, 2023, 2:30 AM · Valley Children's Stadium

UNLV @ Fresno State

Predicted scoreLikely

UNLV

21.5

Fresno State

34.1

Fresno State win probability: 78%

Margin (Fresno State − UNLV): 12.6 (80% range -7 to 34)

Total: 55.7 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: UNLV 24 – Fresno State 31 (margin error 5.6, total error 0.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.