2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 8:00 PM · California Memorial Stadium

USC @ California

Predicted scoreLean

USC

33.2

California

27.7

California win probability: 37%

Margin (California − USC): -5.6 (80% range -27 to 15)

Total: 60.9 (80% range 37 to 87)

Actual: USC 50 – California 49 (margin error 4.6, total error 38.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.