2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM · McLane Stadium
Iowa State @ Baylor
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa State
27.4
Baylor
24.9
Baylor win probability: 44%
Margin (Baylor − Iowa State): -2.5 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 52.3 (80% range 30 to 77)
Actual: Iowa State 30 – Baylor 18 (margin error 9.5, total error 4.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.