2024 Postseason · Jan 3, 2025, 9:00 PM · Gerald J. Ford Stadium (neutral site)

North Texas @ Texas State

Predicted scoreToss-up

North Texas

30.2

Texas State

31.5

Texas State win probability: 53%

Margin (Texas State − North Texas): 1.3 (80% range -20 to 23)

Total: 61.8 (80% range 37 to 88)

Actual: North Texas 28 – Texas State 30 (margin error 0.7, total error 3.8)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.