2023 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023, 7:30 PM · Kidd Brewer Stadium

Southern Miss @ App State

Predicted scoreLikely

Southern Miss

21.7

App State

32.0

App State win probability: 74%

Margin (App State − Southern Miss): 10.3 (80% range -10 to 31)

Total: 53.6 (80% range 31 to 79)

Actual: Southern Miss 38 – App State 48 (margin error 0.3, total error 32.4)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.