Predicted scoreLean
Virginia
24.9
Miami
32.4
Miami win probability: 68%
Margin (Miami − Virginia): 7.5 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 57.3 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Virginia 26 – Miami 29 (margin error 4.5, total error 2.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.60% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.