2024 Postseason · Jan 3, 2025, 1:00 AM · EverBank Stadium (neutral site)

Duke @ Ole Miss

Predicted scoreLean

Duke

26.9

Ole Miss

32.4

Ole Miss win probability: 63%

Margin (Ole Miss − Duke): 5.4 (80% range -15 to 26)

Total: 59.3 (80% range 34 to 86)

Actual: Duke 20 – Ole Miss 52 (margin error 26.6, total error 12.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.