2023 Week 9 · Oct 26, 2023, 11:30 PM · Allen E. Paulson Stadium

Georgia State @ Georgia Southern

Predicted scoreLean

Georgia State

30.2

Georgia Southern

24.6

Georgia Southern win probability: 36%

Margin (Georgia Southern − Georgia State): -5.5 (80% range -27 to 15)

Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Georgia State 27 – Georgia Southern 44 (margin error 22.5, total error 16.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.