2024 Postseason · Jan 1, 2025, 10:00 PM · Rose Bowl (neutral site)

Ohio State @ Oregon

Predicted scoreToss-up

Ohio State

27.8

Oregon

31.9

Oregon win probability: 60%

Margin (Oregon − Ohio State): 4.0 (80% range -17 to 25)

Total: 59.7 (80% range 35 to 86)

Actual: Ohio State 41 – Oregon 21 (margin error 24.0, total error 2.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.