Predicted scoreLikely
Texas
37.7
Houston
23.5
Houston win probability: 20%
Margin (Houston − Texas): -14.1 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 61.2 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: Texas 31 – Houston 24 (margin error 7.1, total error 6.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.59% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.55% |
| 45 | 17 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.