2023 Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023, 7:30 PM · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Wisconsin @ Illinois

Predicted scoreLean

Wisconsin

26.3

Illinois

21.4

Illinois win probability: 37%

Margin (Illinois − Wisconsin): -4.9 (80% range -24 to 14)

Total: 47.7 (80% range 27 to 71)

Actual: Wisconsin 25 – Illinois 21 (margin error 0.9, total error 1.7)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.