2024 Postseason · Dec 31, 2024, 7:00 PM · Sun Bowl (neutral site)

Louisville @ Washington

Predicted scoreLean

Louisville

23.8

Washington

31.2

Washington win probability: 68%

Margin (Washington − Louisville): 7.4 (80% range -13 to 28)

Total: 55.1 (80% range 31 to 80)

Actual: Louisville 35 – Washington 34 (margin error 8.4, total error 13.9)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.