2023 Week 8 · Oct 19, 2023, 1:00 AM · Sun Bowl
New Mexico State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico State
26.2
UTEP
29.0
UTEP win probability: 57%
Margin (UTEP − New Mexico State): 2.8 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: New Mexico State 28 – UTEP 7 (margin error 23.8, total error 20.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.