Predicted scoreLean
Missouri
24.4
Kentucky
29.4
Kentucky win probability: 62%
Margin (Kentucky − Missouri): 4.9 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Missouri 38 – Kentucky 21 (margin error 21.9, total error 5.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.