2023 Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023, 11:00 PM · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
UL Monroe @ Texas State
Predicted scoreLikely
UL Monroe
22.1
Texas State
32.4
Texas State win probability: 73%
Margin (Texas State − UL Monroe): 10.3 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: UL Monroe 20 – Texas State 21 (margin error 9.3, total error 13.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.