Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa
15.8
Missouri
26.9
Missouri win probability: 77%
Margin (Missouri − Iowa): 11.2 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 42.7 (80% range 23 to 65)
Actual: Iowa 24 – Missouri 27 (margin error 8.2, total error 8.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 1.00% |
| 7 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.82% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.