2024 Postseason · Dec 30, 2024, 7:30 PM · Nissan Stadium (neutral site)

Iowa @ Missouri

Predicted scoreLikely

Iowa

15.8

Missouri

26.9

Missouri win probability: 77%

Margin (Missouri − Iowa): 11.2 (80% range -7 to 31)

Total: 42.7 (80% range 23 to 65)

Actual: Iowa 24 – Missouri 27 (margin error 8.2, total error 8.3)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.