Predicted scoreConfident
Indiana
12.3
Michigan
40.7
Michigan win probability: 97%
Margin (Michigan − Indiana): 28.4 (80% range 8 to 49)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 31 to 76)
Actual: Indiana 7 – Michigan 52 (margin error 16.6, total error 6.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 38 | 1.02% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.88% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.