Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas
17.7
Alabama
32.2
Alabama win probability: 82%
Margin (Alabama − Arkansas): 14.4 (80% range -6 to 35)
Total: 49.9 (80% range 28 to 73)
Actual: Arkansas 21 – Alabama 24 (margin error 11.4, total error 4.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.