2023 Week 6 · Oct 8, 2023, 2:30 AM · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Arizona @ USC

Predicted scoreLikely

Arizona

26.0

USC

38.7

USC win probability: 78%

Margin (USC − Arizona): 12.7 (80% range -9 to 35)

Total: 64.8 (80% range 40 to 91)

Actual: Arizona 41 – USC 43 (margin error 10.7, total error 19.2)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.