2024 Postseason · Dec 28, 2024, 8:30 PM · Camping World Stadium (neutral site)

Iowa State @ Miami

Predicted scoreToss-up

Iowa State

27.3

Miami

25.6

Miami win probability: 46%

Margin (Miami − Iowa State): -1.8 (80% range -22 to 18)

Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)

Actual: Iowa State 42 – Miami 41 (margin error 0.8, total error 30.1)

Most likely scorelines

Score distribution

A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.