Predicted scoreLean
UCF
30.6
Kansas
35.7
Kansas win probability: 62%
Margin (Kansas − UCF): 5.1 (80% range -17 to 28)
Total: 66.3 (80% range 41 to 93)
Actual: UCF 22 – Kansas 51 (margin error 23.9, total error 6.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.55% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.